Daniel,
Well, after nearly two months of fig shuffle experience I feel like at expert. : )
First I agree with those that say, "how much do you want to risk". Forget about cold, a couple of nights ago golf ball sized hail was predicted here. I brought in 4 of my most important figlets, the rest were left to deal with the severe weather. No hail, but heavy rains. So far, so good.
In the 2 months since I asked this question here is what I have learned. 40F at NIGHT is still my cutoff. If the figlets had to stay out in sustained 45F temps day and night, I'd probably bring them in. In all cases, every night that has gotten below 40F the next day temps were well above 50F so I wouldn't have had any concerns putting them back outside. In reality though the figlets stayed in the house until night temps were consistently above 40F (I'm not doing the fig shuffle on 20 or 30 figlets before I go to work in the morning).
Here's my real world example. Tonight's temp is predicted to get to 46F, tomorrow during the day 73F, tomorrow night 52F, Saturday 77F. The figlets are staying outside.