I was cleaning out some of my bookmark of internet pages. And there it was, this years winter weather. I saw a wooly bear caterpillar two days before I read the report. He had black caps and a wide reddish brown strip. Funny, the woolly bear and NOAA agree.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html

Synopsis: El Niño is favored to begin in the next 1-2 months and last into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2015.

During September 2014, above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) continued across much of the equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1). The weekly Niño indices were relatively unchanged from the beginning of the month, with values ranging from +0.3^oC (Niño-3.4) to +1.1^oC (Niño-1+2) at the end of the month (Fig. 2). The change in subsurface heat content anomalies (averaged between 180^o-100^oW) was also minimal (Fig. 3) due to the persistence of above-average temperatures at depth across the central and eastern Pacific (Fig. 4). Equatorial low-level winds were largely near average for the month, though brief periods of westerly wind anomalies continue to arise. Upper-level winds were also close to average for the month. The Southern Oscillation Index has remained negative, and rainfall was near average around the Date Line, with a mix of positive and negative anomalies over Indonesia and Papua New Guinea (Fig. 5). The lack of coherent atmospheric and oceanic features indicates the continuation of ENSO-neutral.

Most models predict El Niño to develop during October-December 2014 and to continue into early 2015 (Fig. 6). The consensus of forecasters indicates a 2-in-3 chance of El Niño during the November 2014 - January 2015 season. This El Niño will likely remain weak (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index between 0.5^oC and 0.9^oC) throughout its duration. In summary, El Niño is favored to begin in the next 1-2 months and last into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2015 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forum of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 6 November 2014. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.

I Googled a weak to moderate El Nino winter weather. Here was one site that had the map.
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/el-nino-more-snow-for-upcoming/66450

I guess, I'll leave my potted figs in the unheated garage.

Raise you hands and let us pray
And God will hear what we say

Save us & our figs from harsh winters
let it follow by summer sunny days

After last year I am cranking up my winter protection regardless of long range forecasts. 
Sooner or later we will likely get a repeat of last winter.

How cold does your garage get?  Can you create a micro climate around the figs, put in protected corner or cover the pots?

Prepare for the worst and you need not concern yourself with forecasts. 

If you trust the forecasts when they predict mild winters, I predict you will lose some trees.

Hi,
Winter 2012-2013 is ok for me. Don't send me a rerun of Winter 2011-2012, or that would be a drama !
Hum, let me take a fig and eat it ... while I still can  !
For now I'm concerned about this mild Fall ... nothing good as well: slugs are everywhere and the brood is strengthening.
I suppose other insects are as well raising their number and could become a problem next year ...
My forget-me-not are dealing with that for now... I hope that they'll be able to handle them all come next year ...

[QUOTE=OttawanZ5]Raise you hands and let us pray
And God will hear what we say

Save us & our figs from harsh winters
let it follow by summer sunny days

The garage gets to about 20 degrees until it is below zero. At below zero, I have to carry my 45-50 lb potted the figs to the basement.